Raul Castro may have to lighten up

Posted on Wed, Sep. 13, 2006

CUBA
Raúl Castro may have to lighten up
Experts said Raúl Castro may be forced to open up Cuba's economy if he
hopes to stay in power.
Miami Herald Staff Report

HAVANA - For an engineer named Ismael, Cuban leader Fidel Castro is
''charismatic and super-intelligent.'' But he doesn't feel the same way
about Fidel's brother and designated successor, Raúl Castro.

''He's too hard-line,'' said Ismael, in the kind of comment about Raúl
made repeatedly by Cubans approached on the streets of Havana. ``He's
surrounded by hard-liners. I met him once. He seemed very serious.''

Raúl's lack of affection among Cubans, after 47 years of playing the
tough cop for his older brother, may well hamper his ability to govern
and could force him to open up the communist-ruled island's economy
after Fidel dies, said several analysts who have followed his career.

''Raúl has to establish a new basis of legitimacy,'' Frank Mora, a
professor of national security strategy at the U.S. National War College
in Washington said by telephone. ``He can't govern like Fidel. Fidel has
a unique, personal and charismatic style that no one else can match.

``Raúl doesn't have those skills. But he knows that he needs to meet the
expectations of pent-up demand. People will not make political demands
if they have economic progress.''

The 80-year-old Fidel Castro ceded power to his brother, five years
younger and Cuba's defense minister for four decades, on July 31 after
undergoing emergency surgery for internal bleeding from a still
unexplained ailment.

Raúl Castro's public appearances and statements since then have been
few, although he is expected to take center stage for the first time
ever by filling in for his brother at the Non-Aligned Summit of 116
nations that began Monday in Havana.

Until now, Raúl Castro has been content to operate in his brother's
shadow. He earned a reputation as a hard-liner in the early days of the
revolution by overseeing the execution of soldiers and followers of the
deposed dictator, Fulgencio Batista. Fidel Castro, in an oft-quoted 1959
comment, said his brother was more radical than he was.

FAITHFUL FOLLOWER

Indeed, during the first 30 years of the Cuban Revolution, Raúl Castro
seemed to be a faithful follower of Soviet dogma and occasionally warned
his brother publicly against taking a softer economic or political line.

All of that might explain why Cubans recently interviewed on the streets
of Havana consistently said they held negative views of Raúl.

''People don't like him. They think he's too warlike,'' a school
custodian named Mario said as he stood in the doorway of the
colonial-era Old Havana neighborhood. ``I'm afraid that the Bush
administration will say something that will provoke him.''

''Raúl wants to show that he's in charge. But he doesn't have Fidel's
charisma,'' said a man who gave his name only as Alberto.

''Raúl is crazy. He's crazier than Fidel,'' said 20-year-old Reinier,
who served two years in the military.

Raúl Castro actually has become more flexible in recent years, although
public opinion of him remains unchanged, said Brian Latell, a retired
CIA Cuba specialist and author of the recently published book, After Fidel.

`ADVOCATE OF REFORM'

Since 1990, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, ''he's been an
advocate of reform,'' said Latell. ``He's the only top-level Cuban
official who has had success in implementing change, within the military.''

Latell added that it was Raúl who pushed Fidel, after Cuba's loss of
massive Soviet subsidies, to allow the opening of markets where farmers
can sell some of their products at prices set by supply and demand, and
other small enterprises like privately run restaurants.

Fidel Castro retrenched on some of those changes in recent years, but
Raúl meanwhile has put many of his military officers to work managing a
slew of government agencies, most of them in the tourism sector, as if
they were private enterprises.

''Public perception has not caught up with the changing reality of
Raúl,'' Latell said.

Eugenio Yañez, who taught economics to high-level Cuban government
officials before defecting in 1993, said the low public esteem of Raúl
matters little, given Cuba's highly effective and harsh domestic
security system.

Yañez said he does not expect Raúl to make populist gestures aimed at
boosting his public approval, as a politician facing elections in a
democracy might do.

''To be popular, Raúl doesn't need to take populist actions,'' Yañez
said in a telephone interview. ``He needs to provide more food,
transportation and housing. Because he is not as popular as Fidel, he
cannot ask for trust and support in exchange for nothing.

``He would make changes not because he believes in liberty or democracy,
but because he needs to improve the lives of people to avoid a social
explosion. Without changes, his power could be in jeopardy.''

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