Uncertainty in Cuba After the Death of Hugo Chavez

Uncertainty in Cuba After the Death of Hugo Chavez / Ivan Garcia
Posted on March 8, 2013

For Joel, a 29-year-old engineer, the death of Venezuelan president Hugo
Chávez marks a before and after moment in the Cuban political landscape.

"It's too soon to be able to analyze the consequences, positive or
negative, of someone new in Miraflores. Even if elections are held soon
and Nicolás Maduro wins, the exchange of oil for Cuban medical
specialists could be adversely affected. Being an optimist, I hope
Maduro keeps sending oil to Cuba at favorable rates. On the other hand
we are entering a new period of crisis within a crisis that has been
going on for 22 years," says Joel while following developments on TeleSur.

To people waiting in line at a bakery in Sevilano, a neighborhood in
Havana's Tenth of October district, the passing of the Venezuelan leader
is also a concern, especially if the flow of oil to Cuba is cut off.
Among ordinary people on the island the concept of Chavismo is an
abstraction.

The reality is that, after he took power in 1998, his open checkbook
policy towards the Castro brother's revolution and the sale of 100,000
barrels of oil a day at wholesale prices was the main reason Cuba did
not suddenly revert to the Stone Age.

A large segment of the population has not forgotten the stark years of
the "special period." Power outages lasting twelve hours. Factories
closed down. Economic development projects cancelled due to a shortage
of hard currency and empty coffers preventing the purchase of fuel on
the world market.

For Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez was a Santa Claus from the south. We now
know what this political alliance between the commandate and the
Bolivarian represented – a new type of political platform and torrents
of petrodollars, which advanced the outlandish theories of socialism,
now disguised using different rhetoric.

If you asked people on the streets of Havana what they thought of
Chávez, you would probably find he has more devotees than Castro. "The
man is more jolly and cheerful than Fidel and he sings boleros and
rancheras," observes a taxi driver.

The other reason is simple. The average Cuban sees him as the man who
brought us light. Because thousands of our countrymen also worked in
different missions set up by the former parachutist from Barinas,
hundreds if not thousands of families on the island have been able to
repair their homes or start a small business selling cheap merchandise
acquired during their relatives' sojourn in Venezuela.

This is the case for Lourdes, a 32-year-old nurse. She has travelled
half a dozen times to Venezuela. With the money she saved, she was able
to start a small business selling clothing with counterfeit labels,
whimsical costume jewelry, and electronic equipment such as plasma
screen televisions and computers, which she acquires through contacts in
Caracas and resells in Havana.

Since the end of December Lourdes has not been able to travel to
Venezuela. "The Ministry of Public Health told me, 'Not until further
notice.' Maybe it is because of Chávez' illness. Now with Hugo's death I
am afraid the business will fall apart. I don't trust either Maduro or
Cabello. They are from the same party. But if you take Cuba as an
example, you will see that Raúl, although faithful to his brother Fidel,
has brought new people into his government and eliminated obsolete
restrictions."

At 8:55 PM the Cuban government released a letter of condolence and
declared a state of national mourning, to be officially observed from
March 7 to Friday, March 8. It is striking that, unlike Rafael Correa,
Evo Morales or Sebastián Piñera, General Raúl Castro did not give a
televised address.

Moves are made in Cuba at the pace of a slow, rhythmic dance. The margin
of error for every word is carefully calculated, as are the
repercussions that a speech might have. While we wait for funeral
services to begin in Caracas, which Castro II is predicted to attend,
the main topic of conversation on Cuba's streets is the death of the
Venezuelan president.

A death announced. A bomb squad silence characterized information on
Chávez's state of health. The lack of transparency in news reporting
meant people had to read between the lines of the few and cryptic
reports issued by Caracas.

In Havana, sympathizers and detractors alike were respectful during this
painful time for the family and followers of the Venezuelan president.

The fate of Venezuela is intimately linked to the future of Cuba.
Because its leaders have performed their economic duties so poorly, the
island is now more dependent than ever on external factors.

With the death of their leader many Venezuelans are going through an
emotional earthquake whose seismic shockwaves could reach all the way to
Havana.

Although not unexpected, the demise of Hugo Chávez Frías might lead to
more profound economic reforms in Cuba. General Raúl Castro and Miguel
Díaz Canel, his second-in-command, will find their ability to maneuver
put to the test. We will see if they are up to the task.

Iván García

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